Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

481
FXUS63 KOAX 242310
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread fog is expected to redevelop overnight.

- Dangerous heat and humidity builds this weekend, with heat
  index values reaching near 105 on Saturday and 105 to 115
  Sunday and Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Saturday
  afternoon through Monday evening. An Extreme Heat Watch is
  also in effect for the Omaha metro into southwest Iowa Sunday
  afternoon through Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Drizzle and fog were slow to dissipate this morning and temps
have struggled to manage 70F by 1pm under overcast skies. We do
expect to see clearing from west to east this evening as the
shortwave responsible for the ascent ejects east. This
clearing, humid low levels, and slowing sfc winds should allow
for widespread fog development by sunrise. Confidence for fog
observations is higher than what is typical. Dewpoint
depressions are expected to hit zero.

.SATURDAY...

Heat dominates the weekend`s forecast. For Saturday, temps will
range from triple digits in Antelope, Knox, and Cedar counties
to the north, to lower 90s in southwest Iowa as ridging elbows
in from the west. Expect sunshine with Tds pushing into the
70s. The GFS is continuing to over-mix, a known summer
problem... which bleeds into the NBM. This leaves NBM dewpoints
a bit low on avg, so I`ve remedied that. As it stands, max heat
index values will meet 105 for all but the southern two tiers of
southeast Nebraskan counties on Saturday. A heat advisory
begins for the entire area at noon. Overnight lows falling into
the middle to lower-70s on Saturday night simply increases the
heat- related illness risk and is another reason to play it
liberal with the heat headlines. It will be difficult to cool
homes with no A/C.

.SUNDAY...

Confidence is growing in the need for the EXTREME HEAT WATCH to
be replaced by an EXTREME HEAT WARNING for Sunday and frankly,
it`s likely (85%) to be expanded westward, replacing the heat
advisory across much of the eastern Nebraska plains beyond the
Omaha metro. Collaboration with neighboring offices lead me to
hold off on headline changes for now.

With a bump up in dewpoints and forecast temperatures, max heat
indices will range from near 107 in southeast Nebraska to near
111 elsewhere in the CWA. Skies should be sunny again and there
doesn`t look to be much for possible failure points, although a
shortwave moving through Minnesota is worth monitoring in case
of a track change.

.MONDAY...

Monday`s forecast looks just as hot as Sunday`s... at least for
the majority of the area, but it comes with decreased
confidence. A (dry) cold front will be pushing in from the
northwest and deterministic models are whipping up an MCS that
pushes through central Iowa mid-day. This outflow could lead to
a "surprise" pool of cooler air or persistent mid-day cloud
cover. The extreme heat watch is best left unperturbed for
Monday.

.LONGER TERM...

The ridge begins to break down / retrograde on Tuesday /
Wednesday allowing northwest flow to push occasional shortwaves
through the area. Best chances (30%) are late on Wednesday
night. High temperatures will end up just above seasonal norms,
representing a significant drop from this weekend/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

MVFR stratus persists at all three TAF sites early this
evening. Low level winds are veering, allowing for better warm
air advection and mixing, thus the stratus depth is decreasing.
There is a 70% probability or greater that the stratus
dissipates at KLNK and KOFK between 25/01-02Z. Currently the
possibility of MVFR status dissipating at KOMA is between about
40% by 25/02z. Regardless, short-term forecast models bringing
MVFR then IFR stratus back into the KLNK and KOMA by 06-08z,
and KOFK between 09-10z. Where stratus doesn`t develop, IFR or
LIFR fog will develop. At best, high end IFR flight rules will
persist until 25/15-16z, with rapidly improving conditions
thereafter. Clouds will become scattered by early afternoon,
though there probably will be an increase in coverage with
diurnal cumulus development.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-
     088>093.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052-
     053.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NEZ052-053.
IA...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for
     IAZ043.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Nicolaisen