Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

507
FXUS63 KOAX 301720
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle or light flurries through this afternoon (30-50%
  chance)

- Showers and storms return Tuesday into Wednesday with a 15%
  chance for severe storms Tuesday evening. Primary threat will
  be large hail. 80-100% chance of rain.

- Seasonably cooler weather continues through the end of the
  week with another chance for rain next weekend (30-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Low clouds cover eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this morning
with patchy drizzle. Temperatures are approaching freezing in
our northern counties which could see some freezing drizzle or
flurries through early this afternoon. Ground should be warm
enough to keep from seeing any impacts. Satellite shows a
developing cyclone off to the south ahead of a negatively-tilted
trough. We are located under the northern periphery of the
cloud shield. Clouds will remain socked in through the day today
with northerly winds keeping temperatures cool. Highs this
afternoon will stay down in the 40s.

A ridge passes across the region on Monday making for a fairly
nice day. Clouds will be clearing into the afternoon with highs
remaining on the cool side only reaching the upper 40s to mid
50s. This ridge develops as the Aleutian Low ejects eastward
onto into the Intermountain West. This broad upper-level trough
will tilt the Polar Jet putting us under southwesterly flow
going into midweek. As this occurs we see a surface low develop
over eastern Colorado which will ramp up southerly flow across
Kansas and Nebraska going into Tuesday.

The warm front moves across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
late Monday night into early Tuesday bringing rain back to our
area on the leading edge of this system. Depending on the exact
track of the surface low we may see southern parts of our area
dry out going into the afternoon if we get solidly into the
warm-sector of the cyclone. Otherwise most of our area will
remain in the cloud/rain shield along and north of the warm
front, northeast of the surface low. A tightening pressure
gradient on the leading side of the deepening surface low will
create windy conditions through the day with winds out of the
southeast.

Going into Tuesday evening, models show the surface low tracking
northeast into eastern Nebraska. This as well as the north push
of the low-level jet brings the elevated warm front north into
southeastern portions of our area. This area will be a high
shear environment with a moderate amount of elevated CAPE (~1500
J/kg). While a strong surface inversion remains in place, we
could see elevated supercell development which could produce
large hail. These cells will merge into an MCS as they move into
southwest Iowa. Models show stout amounts of rainfall with this
system with 1-1.5 inches of rainfall forecast overnight into
Wednesday morning.

As this system exits to the northeast on Wednesday we remain
under a southwesterly flow regime with a deep, stationary trough
locked in over the western CONUS. Precip chances decrease from
south to north through the day on Wednesday. Areas across the
southeast that clear out earlier will warm into the 60s by the
afternoon while areas to the north stay down in the 50s.

We stay on the cool side of the Jet through Thursday with highs
only in the mid 50s to low 60s under partly cloudy skies. Going
into the weekend we see our next shortwave eject off of the
western Trough bringing additional chances for showers and
storms. Confidence in the details with this late-week system are
low at this time, but it does look like the severe potential
with this system will stay well to our south. Temperatures into
the weekend will stay cool but seasonable with highs in the
upper 50s and lows mainly in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

MVFR conditions will gradually improve through they day. Light
rain/drizzle/flurries will be possible, primarily at KOMA and
KLNK through about 20Z, before precipitation completely exits
the forecast area. Expect winds to diminish to 12 kts or less
shortly after 00Z this evening, with VFR conditions returning by
06Z tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...KG